{"generated_at":"2026-10-07T10:05:25+00:00","api_version":1,"license":"CC BY 4.0","license_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","categories":{"military":"Military posture","diplomatic":"Diplomatic / political","economic_info":"Economic / informational","humanitarian":"Humanitarian","ew_sigint":"EW / SIGINT"},"config":{"weights":{"military":0.3,"diplomatic":0.2,"economic_info":0.15,"humanitarian":0.2,"ew_sigint":0.15},"baseline":{"window_days":30,"min_days":7,"std_floor":0.75,"deviation_gain":8.0,"z_clamp_low":-2.0,"z_clamp_high":3.0},"signals":{"spike_z":1.5,"spike_delta":2.0,"compound_window_days":3,"compound_min_categories":3,"converging_min_categories":2},"bands":{"elevated":25,"tense":50,"crisis":75},"methodology_version":"1.0"},"entries":[{"date":"2026-09-08","risk":50.5,"absolute":50.5,"z":null,"band":"tense","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":-1.5,"slope_7d":1.14,"baseline_ready":false,"upstream_composite":50.0,"summary":"Britain imposed an import ban on West Bank settlement goods and Israel retaliated by closing the British consulate and barring 11 MPs; settler outposts and raids continued in the West Bank.","categories":{"military":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"Overall judgement: continued strikes and demolitions in Lebanon plus Iran-US naval clashes keep the picture above routine.","z":null,"mean":null,"std":null,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"Al Jazeera reported massive explosions at Mansouri and about two-thirds of its houses destroyed; no new deaths were reported in the Times of Israel live blog."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"Shin Bet said it dismantled a West Bank and Jerusalem network, with more than 30 detained; a home was destroyed at Aqraba and a new outpost reported near Nablus (Times of Israel)."},"syria_front":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No incidents reported in the sources reviewed."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":1.0,"note":"Israel closed the British consulate in Jerusalem, banned 11 British MPs and expelled Gaza and PA representatives after the UK sanctions; Rubio said the US would not follow (Times of Israel).","z":null,"mean":null,"std":null,"delta":1.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":1.0,"note":"The UK settlement-goods import ban took effect as a trade measure; Smotrich's ministry prepared retaliation (Times of Israel).","z":null,"mean":null,"std":null,"delta":1.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"No new aid-access restriction reported; displacement in Lebanon (over 340,000) continued.","z":null,"mean":null,"std":null,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.","z":null,"mean":null,"std":null,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-8-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Sept. 8: Rubio says 'obviously' US won't be joining UK sanctions on West Bank settlements","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/7/israeli-air-attack-kills-at-least-10-people-in-southern-lebanon","title":"Al Jazeera: Israeli air attacks kill at least 12 people in southern Lebanon","domain":"aljazeera.com","category":null}],"notes":"- The UK measure and Israel's retaliation are described as reported by the Times of Israel.\n- Retrospective entry compiled from open-source reporting.","retrospective":true,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-09-09","risk":55.0,"absolute":55.0,"z":null,"band":"tense","signal":"single","spiking":["military"],"window":["military"],"change_1d":4.5,"slope_7d":1.39,"baseline_ready":false,"upstream_composite":55.0,"summary":"Iran fired 20 ballistic missiles at the US-used Al-Azraq air base in Jordan, 18 intercepted by Jordan's forces, a direct strike on one of the five countries this index covers.","categories":{"military":{"score":7.0,"delta_reported":2.0,"note":"Overall judgement: an Iranian missile attack on Jordanian territory is a serious regional escalation, even though the fronts themselves stayed within recent patterns.","z":null,"mean":null,"std":null,"delta":2.0,"spike":true,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":4.0,"justification":"No new strikes or deaths reported on 9 Sept in the sources reviewed; Israeli demolitions in the occupied zone continued."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"A Palestinian was arrested for allegedly ramming a settler teen with a tractor near Ramallah; Sa'ar said Israel has no plan to expel Gaza's population (Times of Israel)."},"syria_front":{"score":4.0,"justification":"Syria condemned Netanyahu's entry into Syrian territory near Mount Hermon as a blatant violation of sovereignty (AFP via Times of Israel)."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"The IAEA board voted 23-3-8 to refer Iran to the UN Security Council; Trump questioned why the UK and others sanctioned settlements; eight Muslim-majority states urged others to follow (Times of Israel).","z":null,"mean":null,"std":null,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"Houthis struck a Saudi airbase and oil infrastructure, wounding 73 per Reuters, adding to Gulf energy risk.","z":null,"mean":null,"std":null,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new aid-access restriction; the Red Cross was not allowed to see detainees at a first meeting (Times of Israel).","z":null,"mean":null,"std":null,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.","z":null,"mean":null,"std":null,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-09-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Sept. 9: Trump says he wants to know why 'all of a sudden' the UK and others sanctioned settlements","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/9/what-is-jordans-al-azraq-base-and-why-is-iran-targeting-it","title":"Al Jazeera: What is Jordan's Al-Azraq base and why is Iran targeting it?","domain":"aljazeera.com","category":null}],"notes":"- Jordan's armed forces said 18 of 20 missiles were intercepted and two fell in open areas; a US official said the attack was ineffective, while another told Reuters one A-10 lost a wing (Al Jazeera, Times of Israel).\n- Retrospective entry compiled from open-source reporting.","retrospective":true,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-09-10","risk":53.56,"absolute":51.5,"z":0.26,"band":"tense","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":["military"],"change_1d":-1.44,"slope_7d":1.45,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":51.0,"summary":"The IDF detonated more than 1,100 tons of explosives to destroy Hezbollah tunnels at Ali Taher Ridge, causing a 4.1-magnitude quake, and Netanyahu and Katz said the south Lebanon security zone was complete.","categories":{"military":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"Overall judgement: the large demolition in Lebanon and the aftermath of the Iranian strike on Jordan keep the military picture elevated.","z":0.57,"mean":5.57,"std":0.75,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"The IDF said it used over 1,100 tons of explosives on the Ali Taher tunnel system; Netanyahu and Katz said the south Lebanon security zone was now organised (Times of Israel)."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"The IDF killed a Hamas commander in Gaza City and struck a north Gaza building, and arrested a suspect in Beitunia (Times of Israel)."},"syria_front":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No incidents reported in the sources reviewed."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"Israel-Lebanon talks were scheduled in Rome for the following week; the PA signalled legislative elections would be delayed (Times of Israel).","z":-0.38,"mean":5.29,"std":0.75,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":1.0,"note":"The US Treasury sanctioned networks aiding Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies in Iraq, Lebanon and Turkey; Hormuz transits fell to single digits (Times of Israel).","z":1.33,"mean":5.0,"std":0.75,"delta":1.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Kerem Shalom was set to close for Rosh Hashanah while aid collection continued (Times of Israel).","z":-0.19,"mean":5.14,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-10-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Sept. 10: Earthquake recorded after IDF demolition of Hezbollah tunnel network in south Lebanon","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null}],"notes":"- Retrospective entry compiled from open-source reporting.","retrospective":true,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-09-11","risk":47.1,"absolute":48.5,"z":-0.17,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":["military"],"change_1d":-6.46,"slope_7d":0.37,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":48.0,"summary":"Saudi Arabia shut its East-West oil pipeline after drone attacks traced to Iraqi territory, while Israel killed a senior Hamas commander and settler incidents continued in the West Bank.","categories":{"military":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"Overall judgement: routine-plus pattern on the fronts; regional spillover remains high.","z":-0.83,"mean":5.62,"std":0.75,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"Israeli drones carried explosives to Mansouri for detonation after the Ali Taher demolition (Times of Israel)."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"Hamas confirmed Khan Younis Brigade commander Mohammed al-Yazouri was killed; settlers were filmed taking livestock at Beita and trying to enter a home in Sinjil (Times of Israel)."},"syria_front":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No incidents reported in the sources reviewed."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Iran announced talks with Gulf states in Oman on Hormuz management; no Israel-Lebanon or Gaza talks progress was reported (Times of Israel).","z":-0.33,"mean":5.25,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Saudi Arabia temporarily shut the East-West pipeline after drone attacks believed to come from Iran-backed militias in Iraq; oil stayed above $100 (Times of Israel).","z":1.17,"mean":5.12,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Democratic lawmakers raised Israel's reported denial of entry to Palestinian-heritage US citizens (Times of Israel).","z":-0.17,"mean":5.12,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-11-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Sept. 11: In Jewish New Year greeting, Netanyahu says US-Israel alliance 'stronger than ever'","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null}],"notes":"- Retrospective entry compiled from open-source reporting.","retrospective":true,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-09-12","risk":47.26,"absolute":48.5,"z":-0.16,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":0.16,"slope_7d":-0.53,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":48.0,"summary":"Lebanon's president visited the south and said Israeli withdrawal is a national constant, while the Israel-Lebanon talks planned for the following week were postponed to October.","categories":{"military":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Overall judgement: unchanged pattern on the three fronts.","z":-0.74,"mean":5.56,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":4.0,"justification":"Aoun made an unannounced visit to Nabatieh and inspected army units in pilot withdrawal zones; US-brokered talks were postponed to October (AFP via Times of Israel)."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"A Palestinian man was shot in the leg during a clash between settlers and soldiers in the northern West Bank (Times of Israel)."},"syria_front":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No incidents reported in the sources reviewed."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"The next round of Israel-Lebanon talks slipped to October; BRICS called for restraint; Iraq closed three border crossings with Iran after the Saudi pipeline attack (Times of Israel).","z":-0.3,"mean":5.22,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Iraq and Iran agreed a joint probe into the drone launch sites behind the Saudi pipeline attack (Reuters via Times of Israel).","z":1.04,"mean":5.22,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"UN reported at least 76,000 Yemenis displaced since July (outside this index's five places).","z":-0.15,"mean":5.11,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-12-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Live blog, 12 September 2026","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null}],"notes":"- Retrospective entry compiled from open-source reporting.","retrospective":true,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-09-13","risk":47.38,"absolute":48.5,"z":-0.14,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":0.12,"slope_7d":-1.01,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":48.0,"summary":"Katz warned that anyone approaching Ali Taher Ridge will be destroyed, the IDF killed two Hamas engineers in Gaza City, and settlers attacked villages near Salfit and Ramallah.","categories":{"military":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Overall judgement: steady pattern on the fronts.","z":-0.67,"mean":5.5,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":4.0,"justification":"Katz said the IDF would stay in south Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed and would destroy anyone approaching Ali Taher; Israeli jets struck near Nabatieh al-Fawqa with no casualties reported (Times of Israel)."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"The IDF killed two Hamas engineers in Gaza City; Palestinian media reported two residents injured in settler attacks near Salfit (Times of Israel)."},"syria_front":{"score":3.0,"justification":"Turkey's foreign minister accused Israel of destabilising Syria through airstrikes (AP, AFP via Times of Israel); fuel-price protests blocked roads in Idlib."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Kushner and Likud traded accusations over the Doha strike; Oman postponed the Iran-Gulf Hormuz talks (Times of Israel).","z":-0.27,"mean":5.2,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"The Saudi pipeline shutdown put up to 4% of global oil supply at risk, with repairs estimated at five to six weeks (Reuters).","z":0.93,"mean":5.3,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new aid-access restriction reported.","z":-0.13,"mean":5.1,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-13-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Sept. 13: Firing back at Kushner, PM's Likud insists Doha strike was successful, helped free hostages","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null}],"notes":"- Retrospective entry compiled from open-source reporting.","retrospective":true,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-09-14","risk":44.38,"absolute":47.0,"z":-0.33,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":-3.0,"slope_7d":-1.42,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":47.0,"summary":"Eight US Marines were hurt when an Iranian missile hit near Hormuz; in the West Bank settlers threw stones in Burqa and set fields alight in Deir Ballut.","categories":{"military":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Overall judgement: unchanged on the fronts; regional naval clashes continue.","z":-0.61,"mean":5.45,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":4.0,"justification":"No incidents reported in the sources reviewed."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"Palestinian media reported settlers throwing stones in Burqa and setting fires in Deir Ballut (Times of Israel)."},"syria_front":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No incidents reported in the sources reviewed."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Trump said he is open to engagement with Iran; no mediator withdrawal or talks collapse reported (Times of Israel).","z":-0.24,"mean":5.18,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"The US sanctioned Russia's VTB over Iran-related evasion; an oil tanker exploded after striking mines in Hormuz, per the IRGC via Fars (Times of Israel).","z":-0.48,"mean":5.36,"std":0.75,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Belgium declined to evacuate 13 Gaza scholarship students (AFP).","z":-0.12,"mean":5.09,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-14-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Sept. 14: Otzma Yehudit files petition to disqualify Democrats party in tit-for-tat","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null}],"notes":"- Retrospective entry compiled from open-source reporting.","retrospective":true,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-09-15","risk":44.6,"absolute":47.0,"z":-0.3,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":0.22,"slope_7d":-1.76,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":47.0,"summary":"The IDF and Shin Bet said they killed a Hamas Rafah Brigade commander; Palestinian media reported two dead including an 8-year-old girl in a Khan Younis strike.","categories":{"military":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Overall judgement: steady pattern on the fronts.","z":-0.56,"mean":5.42,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":4.0,"justification":"The IDF published a Hezbollah rocket launcher found in the south; the US ambassador visited a Lebanese army pilot zone (Times of Israel, AFP)."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"The IDF said it killed Rafah Brigade commander Nael Abu Obeid; Palestinian media reported two killed, including an 8-year-old girl, and 14 wounded in Khan Younis; Border Police raided Bir Nabala (Times of Israel)."},"syria_front":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No incidents reported in the sources reviewed."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Military chiefs of Israel, the US, Jordan, Egypt and Gulf states met to discuss the Iran war (Axios, CENTCOM via Times of Israel).","z":-0.22,"mean":5.17,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"The Trump administration was reported planning a $2.8 billion munitions sale to Israel (Reuters).","z":-0.44,"mean":5.33,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Kerem Shalom was closed for Rosh Hashanah; casualty claims in Khan Younis are attributed to Palestinian media.","z":-0.11,"mean":5.08,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-15-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Live blog, 15 September 2026","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null}],"notes":"- Retrospective entry compiled from open-source reporting.","retrospective":true,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-09-16","risk":55.12,"absolute":52.0,"z":0.39,"band":"tense","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":10.52,"slope_7d":-0.11,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":52.0,"summary":"A building collapse in Gaza City killed at least 20 people with dozens missing, which the IDF denied causing; the IDF said it killed three Hamas and Islamic Jihad operatives.","categories":{"military":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":1.0,"note":"Overall judgement: the Gaza City collapse and strikes lift the Gaza front above its recent level.","z":0.82,"mean":5.38,"std":0.75,"delta":1.0,"spike":false,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":4.0,"justification":"IDF chief Zamir said the Lebanese army must improve against Hezbollah; no strikes or casualties were reported (Times of Israel)."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":6.0,"justification":"At least 20 killed in a Gaza City building collapse, with dozens reported missing; the IDF denied striking it and said it killed three Hamas and Islamic Jihad operatives; a stolen anti-tank weapon was fired at homes in Kafr Qasim (Times of Israel)."},"syria_front":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No incidents reported in the sources reviewed."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Egypt hosted Abbas; the US denied him a visa for the second year (Times of Israel).","z":-0.21,"mean":5.15,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"The FBI and Coast Guard boarded two oil tankers after cyberattack indicators; no disruption reported (Times of Israel).","z":-0.41,"mean":5.31,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":1.0,"note":"A building collapse reported to have killed at least 20 is a credible mass-casualty report whose cause is disputed; unverified here.","z":1.23,"mean":5.08,"std":0.75,"delta":1.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-16-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Live blog, 16 September 2026","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null}],"notes":"- The cause of the Gaza City collapse is disputed: reports of the toll are from the Times of Israel live blog, and the IDF denied involvement.\n- Retrospective entry compiled from open-source reporting.","retrospective":true,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-09-17","risk":44.56,"absolute":47.0,"z":-0.3,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":-10.56,"slope_7d":0.19,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":47.0,"summary":"The IDF killed Hamas operatives in Bureij strikes, the PA said a detainee died in Israeli custody, and the UN General Assembly voted 152-3 to let Abbas speak virtually.","categories":{"military":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"Overall judgement: steady pattern on the fronts.","z":-0.57,"mean":5.43,"std":0.75,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":4.0,"justification":"No incidents reported in the sources reviewed; Macron met Lebanon's president in Paris."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"The IDF said airstrikes killed a Nukhba member in Bureij and a naval force commander; the PA reported the death of a 21-year-old held in administrative detention (Times of Israel)."},"syria_front":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No incidents reported in the sources reviewed."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"The UN General Assembly voted 152-3 to allow Abbas a virtual address after the US denied him entry (Times of Israel).","z":-0.19,"mean":5.14,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"The US sanctioned an Iranian crypto exchange over Hormuz transit-fee payments (Times of Israel).","z":-0.38,"mean":5.29,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"The PA cited more than 92 Palestinian deaths in Israeli prisons during the war; the figure is the PA commission's.","z":-0.19,"mean":5.14,"std":0.75,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-17-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Live blog, 17 September 2026","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null}],"notes":"- Retrospective entry compiled from open-source reporting.","retrospective":true,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-09-18","risk":41.62,"absolute":45.5,"z":-0.48,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":-2.94,"slope_7d":-0.42,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":46.0,"summary":"A masked settler was filmed beating a Palestinian woman in the South Hebron Hills, the IDF probed gunfire near al-Mughayyir, and Yom Kippur closures began.","categories":{"military":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Overall judgement: steady pattern on the fronts.","z":-0.53,"mean":5.4,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":4.0,"justification":"Smoke was photographed rising from south Lebanon during an Israeli operation; no casualties reported (Times of Israel)."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"A settler was filmed beating a woman with a stick in the South Hebron Hills with no arrests; the IDF investigated gunfire at a motorist near al-Mughayyir (Times of Israel)."},"syria_front":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No incidents reported in the sources reviewed."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"The UN secretary-general regretted the visa denial to Abbas (Times of Israel).","z":-0.18,"mean":5.13,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"Background friction only.","z":-1.69,"mean":5.27,"std":0.75,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Kerem Shalom closed for Yom Kippur on 20-21 Sept.","z":-0.18,"mean":5.13,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-18-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Live blog, 18 September 2026","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null}],"notes":"- Retrospective entry compiled from open-source reporting.","retrospective":true,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-09-19","risk":41.87,"absolute":45.5,"z":-0.45,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":0.25,"slope_7d":-0.79,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":46.0,"summary":"Three people including a girl were reported killed by Israeli fire in Gaza and the IDF killed a Hamas commander; Houthis claimed missile and drone attacks on Riyadh.","categories":{"military":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Overall judgement: steady pattern on the fronts.","z":-0.5,"mean":5.38,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":4.0,"justification":"No incidents reported in the sources reviewed."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"Three people, including a girl, were reported killed by the IDF in north and central Gaza; the IDF said it killed Hamas commander Mohammed Byouk; settlers attacked villages near Ramallah (Times of Israel). Al Jazeera reported the son of Gaza's health chief among four killed."},"syria_front":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No incidents reported in the sources reviewed."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Iran's security chief said Tehran conveyed conditions to mediators including an end to war on all fronts (Reuters via Times of Israel).","z":-0.17,"mean":5.12,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Background friction only.","z":-1.58,"mean":5.19,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Casualty claims in Gaza are attributed to Palestinian reports; no new aid-access restriction.","z":-0.17,"mean":5.12,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-19-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Live blog, 19 September 2026","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null}],"notes":"- Retrospective entry compiled from open-source reporting.","retrospective":true,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-09-20","risk":48.28,"absolute":48.5,"z":-0.03,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":6.41,"slope_7d":-0.26,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":48.0,"summary":"A Palestinian gunman killed an Israeli father of six at a spring near Neve Tzuf, an attacker was shot after a ramming attempt, and the IDF killed three Hamas operatives in Gaza.","categories":{"military":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":1.0,"note":"Overall judgement: a fatal attack on an Israeli and continued Gaza strikes lift the Gaza and West Bank front.","z":0.86,"mean":5.35,"std":0.75,"delta":1.0,"spike":false,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":4.0,"justification":"No incidents reported in the sources reviewed."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":6.0,"justification":"Netanel Shukrun was killed in a shooting at Neve Tzuf; the attacker from Bidu was captured; the IDF shot a man who tried to ram soldiers; the IDF reported killing three Hamas operatives; the West Bank had the equivalent of 27 battalions deployed (Times of Israel)."},"syria_front":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No incidents reported in the sources reviewed."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Iran's military said it had information of a US plan to resume strikes; a CIA director met Egypt's president (Times of Israel).","z":-0.16,"mean":5.12,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Background friction only.","z":-1.49,"mean":5.12,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new aid-access restriction reported.","z":-0.16,"mean":5.12,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-20-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Live blog, 20 September 2026","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null}],"notes":"- Retrospective entry compiled from open-source reporting.","retrospective":true,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-09-21","risk":48.29,"absolute":48.5,"z":-0.03,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":0.01,"slope_7d":-0.19,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":48.0,"summary":"The IDF struck Hamas sites after a roadside bomb hit an engineering vehicle on the Yellow Line; Gaza's ministry reported four killed including an 11-year-old boy.","categories":{"military":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Overall judgement: a ceasefire violation claimed by the IDF and four reported deaths in Gaza.","z":0.81,"mean":5.39,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":4.0,"justification":"No incidents reported in the sources reviewed."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":6.0,"justification":"The IDF called a bomb strike on an unmanned vehicle a blatant violation and struck Hamas sites; Gaza authorities reported four killed, including a boy shot by a tank in al-Mawasi, with 1,394 deaths since the October 2025 ceasefire (Times of Israel, Al Jazeera)."},"syria_front":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No incidents reported in the sources reviewed."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"The US refused visas to members of Iran's UN delegation; Qatar denied that its aid reached Hamas (Times of Israel).","z":-0.15,"mean":5.11,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Background friction only.","z":-1.41,"mean":5.06,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Gaza's health ministry counts 1,394 killed and 4,839 wounded since the ceasefire; the figure is the ministry's and not verified here.","z":-0.15,"mean":5.11,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-21-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Live blog, 21 September 2026","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/21/israeli-attacks-on-gaza-kill-three-including-a-child","title":"Al Jazeera: Child among four Palestinians killed in Israeli attacks on Gaza","domain":"aljazeera.com","category":null}],"notes":"- Casualty counts are the Gaza Health Ministry's; the IDF disputes many individual cases.\n- Retrospective entry compiled from open-source reporting.","retrospective":true,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-09-22","risk":49.34,"absolute":49.0,"z":0.04,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":1.05,"slope_7d":-0.12,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":49.0,"summary":"At the UN General Assembly the Qatari emir and Turkey's president accused Israel over Gaza, Jordan's king called Israel's presence in Syria a regional threat, and 14 settler activists crossed into Syria before being retrieved.","categories":{"military":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"Overall judgement: steady pattern on the fronts.","z":-0.56,"mean":5.42,"std":0.75,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":4.0,"justification":"No incidents reported in the sources reviewed."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"Hamas-affiliated media reported two killed in a drone strike in Gaza City's Tuffah neighbourhood; the IDF did not comment (Times of Israel)."},"syria_front":{"score":4.0,"justification":"Fourteen Israeli settler activists crossed into Syria near Alonei Habashan and were retrieved by the IDF; King Abdullah called Israel's presence in Syria a regional threat (Times of Israel)."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":1.0,"note":"Israel's delegation walked out on Erdogan; Iran's delegation walked out on Trump; US envoys met Iranian counterparts for three hours and Trump said it went very well (Times of Israel).","z":1.19,"mean":5.11,"std":0.75,"delta":1.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":1.0,"note":"The first Iranian flights were cancelled as US airline sanctions took effect (Times of Israel).","z":0.0,"mean":5.0,"std":0.75,"delta":1.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Qatar's emir described Gaza as genocide; this is a political characterisation attributed to him, not a verified finding.","z":-0.14,"mean":5.11,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-22-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Live blog, 22 September 2026","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null}],"notes":"- Retrospective entry compiled from open-source reporting.","retrospective":true,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-09-23","risk":55.52,"absolute":52.0,"z":0.44,"band":"tense","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":6.18,"slope_7d":1.95,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":52.0,"summary":"An IDF reservist, the son of Israel's US envoy, was seriously wounded in a car-ramming near Route 443, and Katz told Syria's president Israel will not leave the Syrian buffer zone.","categories":{"military":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":1.0,"note":"Overall judgement: a serious attack on an Israeli and defiant statements on Syria.","z":0.8,"mean":5.4,"std":0.75,"delta":1.0,"spike":false,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":4.0,"justification":"No incidents reported in the sources reviewed."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":6.0,"justification":"Reservist Neria Leiter was seriously wounded in a ramming attack; police found a 25-metre tunnel with weapons in Qalqilya and arrested four (Times of Israel)."},"syria_front":{"score":4.0,"justification":"Katz told Sharaa the Golan is an eternal part of Israel and Israel will remain on Mount Hermon and in the security zone (Defense Ministry statement via Times of Israel)."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Rubio said the world does not need a West Bank crisis; Netanyahu prepared to push back on Western sanctions in his UN address (Times of Israel).","z":1.13,"mean":5.15,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Background friction only.","z":0.0,"mean":5.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"An Indian sailor was killed in a Hormuz attack (outside this index's five places).","z":-0.13,"mean":5.1,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-23-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Live blog, 23 September 2026","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null}],"notes":"- Retrospective entry compiled from open-source reporting.","retrospective":true,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-09-24","risk":49.15,"absolute":49.0,"z":0.02,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":-6.37,"slope_7d":1.82,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":49.0,"summary":"Israeli forces set off large explosions near Taybeh and Deir Siryan in south Lebanon, Netanyahu told Syria's president Israeli troops will not withdraw, and he attacked Qatar and Turkey at the UN.","categories":{"military":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"Overall judgement: steady pattern with continued demolitions in Lebanon.","z":-0.57,"mean":5.43,"std":0.75,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"Al Jazeera reported large explosions near Taybeh and Deir Siryan and artillery fires; Israeli Army Radio said Israel cut its brigades in south Lebanon from eight to six (Al Jazeera, Antiwar.com)."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"No Gaza or West Bank incidents were reported in the Times of Israel live blog for 24 Sept."},"syria_front":{"score":4.0,"justification":"Netanyahu told Sharaa Israel would not withdraw from the buffer zones (Times of Israel)."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Netanyahu's UN speech criticised Qatar and Turkey and drew rebuttals from Qatar (Times of Israel).","z":1.08,"mean":5.19,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Houthis claimed attacks on Riyadh and Aramco's Yanbu facilities, which Saudi Arabia said it intercepted (Times of Israel).","z":0.0,"mean":5.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new aid-access restriction reported.","z":-0.13,"mean":5.1,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-24-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Live blog, 24 September 2026","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null},{"url":"https://news.antiwar.com/2026/09/24/israel-continues-to-pound-southern-lebanon-but-reportedly-reduces-deployment-of-ground-troops/","title":"Antiwar.com: Israel continues to pound southern Lebanon but reportedly reduces deployment of ground troops (citing Israeli Army Radio, NNA)","domain":"news.antiwar.com","category":null}],"notes":"- Lebanon figures remain the Lebanese ministry's: at least 4,386 killed since 2 March.\n- Retrospective entry compiled from open-source reporting.","retrospective":true,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-09-25","risk":41.91,"absolute":45.5,"z":-0.45,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":-7.24,"slope_7d":0.32,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":46.0,"summary":"Lebanon's prime minister told the UN that recovering territory from Israeli occupation is an existential challenge while Israeli shelling and demolitions continued in the south.","categories":{"military":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Overall judgement: steady pattern on the fronts.","z":-0.55,"mean":5.41,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"Salam demanded full withdrawal at the UN; Al Jazeera reported continuing shelling, with at least 4,386 killed and 12,407 wounded since 2 March per Lebanese authorities, and over 60 towns still occupied."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"The IDF sealed the home of an attacker in Bidu (Times of Israel)."},"syria_front":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No incidents reported in the sources reviewed."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"Iran said it would make no nuclear concessions and Hormuz stays shut until its conditions are met (Times of Israel).","z":-0.3,"mean":5.23,"std":0.75,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"Background friction only.","z":-1.33,"mean":5.0,"std":0.75,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Lebanon's authorities report more than 12,000 wounded; figures are the Lebanese ministry's.","z":-0.12,"mean":5.09,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-25-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Live blog, 25 September 2026","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/25/israeli-shelling-continues-as-lebanons-pm-demands-withdrawal-in-un-speech","title":"Al Jazeera: Israeli shelling continues as Lebanon's PM demands withdrawal in UN speech","domain":"aljazeera.com","category":null}],"notes":"- Casualty totals are attributed to Lebanese authorities.\n- Retrospective entry compiled from open-source reporting.","retrospective":true,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-09-26","risk":46.2,"absolute":47.5,"z":-0.16,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":4.29,"slope_7d":-0.69,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":48.0,"summary":"Hezbollah launched a drone at Israeli troops with no damage, the first Hezbollah action reported in weeks, the IDF struck a weapons cache at Sejoud, and Trump rejected Iran's Hormuz plan.","categories":{"military":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Overall judgement: steady pattern with one Hezbollah action.","z":-0.52,"mean":5.39,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"Antiwar.com reported a Hezbollah drone toward Israeli troops on Saturday causing no damage; the IDF said it struck a weapons cache at Sejoud (Times of Israel, Antiwar.com)."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"The IDF said it killed Hamas commander Ibrahim Mohsen in Nuseirat and an operative in Khan Younis (Times of Israel)."},"syria_front":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No incidents reported in the sources reviewed."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":1.0,"note":"Trump confirmed rejecting Iran's seven-day Hormuz reopening plan; Qatar's prime minister called Netanyahu the biggest obstacle to the Gaza plan (Times of Israel, Al Jazeera).","z":1.04,"mean":5.22,"std":0.75,"delta":1.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Background friction only.","z":-1.28,"mean":4.96,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new aid-access restriction reported.","z":-0.12,"mean":5.09,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-26-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Live blog, 26 September 2026","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null},{"url":"https://news.antiwar.com/2026/09/27/israeli-strikes-surge-across-southern-lebanon-in-latest-escalation/","title":"Antiwar.com: Israeli strikes surge across southern Lebanon in latest escalation","domain":"news.antiwar.com","category":null}],"notes":"- The Hezbollah drone report is Antiwar.com's, citing Israeli statements; Hezbollah did not claim it in the sources reviewed.\n- Retrospective entry compiled from open-source reporting.","retrospective":true,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-09-27","risk":51.42,"absolute":50.0,"z":0.18,"band":"tense","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":5.22,"slope_7d":-0.37,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":50.0,"summary":"Israel escalated strikes on villages including Mansouri, Hadatha and Nabatieh al-Fawqa after the drone launch, with shelling, helicopter fire and white phosphorus reported but no casualties.","categories":{"military":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":1.0,"note":"Overall judgement: a clear escalation of Israeli fire in south Lebanon.","z":0.83,"mean":5.38,"std":0.75,"delta":1.0,"spike":false,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":6.0,"justification":"Antiwar.com reported intense shelling, Apache strikes and white phosphorus on at least six localities under evacuation orders, with no casualties and considerable destruction; the IDF said it targeted Hezbollah infrastructure."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"Israel Police said an elite unit killed a militant involved in the 7 October abductions in the West Bank (Times of Israel)."},"syria_front":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No incidents reported in the sources reviewed."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"Iran's UN delegation said it had no plans to meet the US that week; the US ambassador called Iran's proposal cynical (Times of Israel).","z":-0.33,"mean":5.25,"std":0.75,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":1.0,"note":"Dutch customs searched El Al luggage as a ban on settlement goods took effect; Israel moved to revoke Dutch diplomats' credentials (Times of Israel).","z":0.11,"mean":4.92,"std":0.75,"delta":1.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No casualty report for the Lebanon escalation; displacement continued.","z":-0.11,"mean":5.08,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-27-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Live blog, 27 September 2026","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null},{"url":"https://news.antiwar.com/2026/09/27/israeli-strikes-surge-across-southern-lebanon-in-latest-escalation/","title":"Antiwar.com: Israeli strikes surge across southern Lebanon in latest escalation","domain":"news.antiwar.com","category":null}],"notes":"- The white phosphorus claim is Antiwar.com's and is not confirmed by the IDF in the sources reviewed.\n- Retrospective entry compiled from open-source reporting.","retrospective":true,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-09-28","risk":51.37,"absolute":50.0,"z":0.17,"band":"tense","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":-0.05,"slope_7d":-0.18,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":50.0,"summary":"The IDF said it completed a brigade-level operation at Mansouri destroying more than 600 Hezbollah sites; settlers rioted in Jalud and Israeli officials warned a wider Gaza operation may be inevitable.","categories":{"military":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Overall judgement: a large operation in south Lebanon and rising Gaza warnings.","z":0.8,"mean":5.4,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":6.0,"justification":"The IDF said its forces completed a brigade-level operation at Mansouri with over 600 sites destroyed and shot two suspects entering the security zone (Times of Israel, Sunday Guardian)."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"About 100 settlers rioted at Jalud as a court-ordered family return was attempted; Israeli officials warned of an expanded Gaza operation (Times of Israel)."},"syria_front":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No incidents reported in the sources reviewed."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Netanyahu met the UAE president in Abu Dhabi; Israel withdrew diplomatic privileges from Dutch diplomats over the settlement-goods ban (Times of Israel).","z":-0.32,"mean":5.24,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Israel's retaliation against the Netherlands over the settlement-goods ban continued.","z":0.11,"mean":4.92,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new aid-access restriction reported.","z":-0.11,"mean":5.08,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-28-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Live blog, 28 September 2026","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null},{"url":"https://sundayguardianlive.com/world/us-israel-iran-war-latest-live-news-israel-strikes-southern-lebanon-death-toll-reaches-4386-amid-sweep-operations-in-haddatha-al-mansouri-as-regional-tensions-rise-296444","title":"Sunday Guardian: Israel strikes southern Lebanon, death toll reaches 4,386 amid sweep operations in Haddatha, Al-Mansouri","domain":"sundayguardianlive.com","category":null}],"notes":"- Retrospective entry compiled from open-source reporting.","retrospective":true,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-09-29","risk":48.21,"absolute":48.5,"z":-0.04,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":-3.16,"slope_7d":-0.28,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":48.0,"summary":"Settlers burned two homes at Jalud hours after a court-ordered family return, the IDF killed Hamas commander Izz al-Din al-Beik, and Lebanon reported Israeli sweep operations toward Haddatha.","categories":{"military":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Overall judgement: the killing of a senior Hamas commander and the Jalud attack lift the Gaza and West Bank front.","z":0.77,"mean":5.42,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"Lebanon's NNA reported an Israeli sweep toward Haddatha and an air strike on Mansouri (Sunday Guardian)."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":6.0,"justification":"Settlers torched homes and vehicles at Jalud and the army, per Al Jazeera, protected the settlers and forced the family out again at gunpoint; Israeli forces killed Hamas commander Izz al-Din al-Beik; three were reported killed in Jabalia and Gaza City (Al Jazeera, Times of Israel)."},"syria_front":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No incidents reported in the sources reviewed."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Hamas and Islamic Jihad formed an election list with Dahlan; the UAE condemned Ben Gvir's Temple Mount visit (Times of Israel).","z":-0.31,"mean":5.23,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"Background friction only.","z":-1.23,"mean":4.92,"std":0.75,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new aid-access restriction; OCHA counted more than 1,330 settler attacks from January to late July (Al Jazeera).","z":-0.1,"mean":5.08,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-29-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Sept. 29: After PM's warning, Bennett says 'mass draft evasion and IDF's collapse' are 'the worst danger'","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/29/israeli-settlers-attack-jalud-village-in-occupied-west-bank-torch-homes","title":"Al Jazeera: Israeli settlers attack Jalud village in occupied West Bank","domain":"aljazeera.com","category":null}],"notes":"- The Jalud account of the army's role is Al Jazeera's; the military said troops prevented harm to the family and two settlers were arrested.\n- Retrospective entry compiled from open-source reporting.","retrospective":true,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-09-30","risk":52.36,"absolute":50.5,"z":0.23,"band":"tense","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":4.15,"slope_7d":0.98,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":50.0,"summary":"Israeli attacks killed eight people in Gaza including a journalist, taking Gaza's post-ceasefire toll to 1,431, and an Omani flydubai co-pilot attempted to crash a Dubai-Tel Aviv flight.","categories":{"military":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Overall judgement: multiple fatalities in Gaza under the ceasefire.","z":0.74,"mean":5.44,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"No new strikes or casualties reported in the Times of Israel live blog; occupation and demolitions in the south continued."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":6.0,"justification":"Gaza authorities reported eight killed including journalist Mohammad al-Najjar and six in a van strike; the IDF said it targeted an operative; settlers pepper-sprayed a 90-year-old man in al-Mughayyir (Al Jazeera, Times of Israel)."},"syria_front":{"score":3.0,"justification":"Three Syrian power plants went offline after a gas pipeline explosion at Tishreen (Syrian Civil Defense via Times of Israel); no Israeli action reported."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Israel told diplomats the flydubai attempted hijacking was an attack on the Abraham Accords and agreed cooperation with the UAE (Times of Israel).","z":-0.3,"mean":5.22,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Background friction only.","z":-1.19,"mean":4.89,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":1.0,"note":"Gaza's ministry counts at least 1,431 killed and 5,026 wounded since the ceasefire and doctors describe a decimated health system; figures are the ministry's and not verified here.","z":1.23,"mean":5.07,"std":0.75,"delta":1.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-30-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Sept. 30: Flydubai announces suspension of Israel flights amid probe into attempted hijacking","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/30/israeli-attacks-on-gaza-kill-several-as-ceasefire-violations-continue","title":"Al Jazeera: Journalist among eight people killed by Israeli attacks on Gaza","domain":"aljazeera.com","category":null}],"notes":"- Casualty counts are the Gaza Health Ministry's.\n- Retrospective entry compiled from open-source reporting.","retrospective":true,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-10-01","risk":51.26,"absolute":50.0,"z":0.16,"band":"tense","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":-1.1,"slope_7d":1.33,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":50.0,"summary":"Settlers shot dead a Palestinian man near Yasuf, a soldier was filmed threatening a Bedouin man near Ramallah, and the US sanctioned Iran's auto and rail sectors.","categories":{"military":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Overall judgement: steady pattern with West Bank deaths.","z":0.71,"mean":5.46,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"The UN FAO reported 56,000 hectares of Lebanese farmland affected and farmers blocked from their land (AFP via Times of Israel)."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":6.0,"justification":"The PA reported a man shot dead by settlers near Yasuf and an IDF soldier threatened a family near Ramallah; 105 bodies recovered from a Gaza rubble site were buried (Times of Israel, AFP)."},"syria_front":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No incidents reported in the sources reviewed."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Trump suggested a possible Iran link to the flydubai attack while Netanyahu said it was too early to say (Times of Israel).","z":-0.29,"mean":5.21,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":1.0,"note":"The US targeted Iran's auto and rail sectors; a tanker was struck in Hormuz (Reuters via Times of Israel).","z":0.19,"mean":4.86,"std":0.75,"delta":1.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"The FAO figure on Lebanese farmland is its own; 105 bodies recovered in Gaza is reported by AFP.","z":-0.14,"mean":5.11,"std":0.75,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-october-01-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Oct. 1: Soldier filmed threatening Bedouin man in West Bank after settlers attack his family","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null}],"notes":"- Retrospective entry compiled from open-source reporting.","retrospective":true,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-10-02","risk":51.21,"absolute":50.0,"z":0.15,"band":"tense","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":-0.05,"slope_7d":0.56,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":50.0,"summary":"A 19-year-old Palestinian was killed at Kobar during a confrontation with settlers and soldiers, six Arab bus drivers were assaulted in Jerusalem, and Houthi-Saudi fighting continued.","categories":{"military":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Overall judgement: steady pattern with West Bank deaths.","z":0.69,"mean":5.48,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"No incidents reported in the sources reviewed."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":6.0,"justification":"Baha al-Natshah, 19, was killed at Kobar: the mayor blamed settlers, the PA said settlers fired, and the IDF said it was investigating; six Arab bus drivers were assaulted in Jerusalem (Times of Israel, AFP)."},"syria_front":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No incidents reported in the sources reviewed."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Netanyahu said whoever sent the flydubai co-pilot would pay a heavy price (Times of Israel).","z":-0.28,"mean":5.21,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"The US sanctioned a Hamas financing network; Houthis reported dozens of Saudi strikes (Reuters via Times of Israel).","z":0.18,"mean":4.86,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new aid-access restriction reported.","z":-0.14,"mean":5.1,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-october-02-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Oct. 2: Israeli officials expected to question copilot who attempted to crash flydubai flight, source says","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null}],"notes":"- The cause of the Kobar death is disputed between the PA, the mayor and the IDF.\n- Retrospective entry compiled from open-source reporting.","retrospective":true,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-10-03","risk":51.17,"absolute":50.0,"z":0.15,"band":"tense","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":-0.04,"slope_7d":0.07,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":50.0,"summary":"An overnight Israeli strike on a Gaza City apartment killed five including four women, and settlers attacked olive pickers south of Nablus as the harvest began.","categories":{"military":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Overall judgement: steady pattern on the fronts.","z":0.67,"mean":5.5,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"No incidents reported in the sources reviewed."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":6.0,"justification":"The IDF struck an apartment it said was used for terror activity, targeting senior Hamas official Ali al-Amoudi; five were reported killed including four women; settlers attacked olive pickers near Nablus (Times of Israel, Al Jazeera)."},"syria_front":{"score":4.0,"justification":"The IDF said it opened fire on two suspects approaching a southern Syria military post on a motorcycle (Times of Israel)."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Iran's president said talks with the US are meaningless (Times of Israel).","z":-0.27,"mean":5.2,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Houthis claimed an Aramco facility strike in Riyadh (Reuters).","z":0.18,"mean":4.87,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Casualty figures for the Gaza City strike are as reported by Al Jazeera and the Times of Israel.","z":-0.13,"mean":5.1,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-october-03-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Oct. 3: Eisenkot links PM's rejection of state inquiry into Oct. 7 to flydubai near disaster","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null}],"notes":"- Retrospective entry compiled from open-source reporting.","retrospective":true,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-10-04","risk":51.07,"absolute":50.0,"z":0.13,"band":"tense","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":-0.1,"slope_7d":0.14,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":50.0,"summary":"The IDF killed a Hamas commander in Khan Younis and a Nukhba member linked to a Turkish aid group, Syria protested Israeli earthworks, and Iran's oil minister resigned under the US blockade.","categories":{"military":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Overall judgement: steady pattern on the fronts.","z":0.62,"mean":5.53,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":4.0,"justification":"L'Orient Today reported no Hezbollah operations claimed since the June ceasefire; Israeli presence and demolitions continued."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":6.0,"justification":"The IDF said it killed Khan Younis commander Muad Abu Nuseira and Nukhba member Saqr Qaisi (Times of Israel); settlers attacked farmers near Nablus (Al Jazeera)."},"syria_front":{"score":4.0,"justification":"Syria's foreign ministry called Israeli earthworks on the Sufa 53 line a breach of the 1974 agreement."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Iran's foreign minister said there is no military solution to the conflict, nor one based on new sanctions (Times of Israel, L'Orient Today).","z":-0.27,"mean":5.2,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Iran's oil minister resigned amid the US blockade of Iranian oil exports (Times of Israel).","z":0.18,"mean":4.87,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new aid-access restriction reported.","z":-0.13,"mean":5.1,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-october-04-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Oct. 4: Netanyahu orders 'thorough review' of security procedures for foreign flights to Israel","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null}],"notes":"- Retrospective entry compiled from open-source reporting.","retrospective":true,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-10-05","risk":50.91,"absolute":50.0,"z":0.11,"band":"tense","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":-0.16,"slope_7d":0.19,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":50.0,"summary":"Israel kept striking Hamas targets in Gaza (Khan Younis, 4 Oct), holding and demolishing in south Lebanon, and shooting suspects near its posts in southern Syria as Syria protested earthworks near the 1974 line; settler attacks on olive harvesters continued in the West Bank. The US-Iran confrontation over Hormuz remains the main regional backdrop. No new Hezbollah operations were reported since the June ceasefire.","categories":{"military":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Overall judgement: continued Israeli occupation and strikes in south Lebanon, near-daily lethal strikes in Gaza and a West Bank settler-violence surge, inside a regional US-Iran war; no front reached a multi-day exchange.","z":0.58,"mean":5.57,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"L'Orient Today (4 Oct) reported no Hezbollah operations claimed since the June ceasefire; the IDF described two soldiers' injuries in Majdal Zoun as an operational accident, under investigation. Israeli forces also continue to hold over 60 southern towns and demolish homes there (Al Jazeera, 25 Sept)."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":6.0,"justification":"The IDF said it killed Hamas members in Khan Younis on 4 Oct (Times of Israel liveblog); Al Jazeera reported settler attacks on olive pickers at Abu Dis, Awarta, Beita and Osarin on 3 Oct."},"syria_front":{"score":4.0,"justification":"The IDF said troops shot a suspect who tried to infiltrate an outpost in southern Syria after midnight on 5 Oct; Syria's Foreign Ministry called earthworks on the Sufa 53 Line (4 Oct) a breach of the 1974 Disengagement Agreement."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Positions restated: Iran's foreign minister said on 4 Oct there is no military solution (Times of Israel, L'Orient Today); Syria's government condemned Israeli activity near the 1974 line; Israel banned a UK party leader (4 Oct).","z":-0.27,"mean":5.2,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"New US sanctions on Iran's auto and rail sectors and on a Hamas financing network, tanker strikes in Hormuz, and Iran's oil minister resigning under the US blockade (Times of Israel, 1-4 Oct); no Levant gas dispute reported.","z":0.13,"mean":4.9,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Gaza's ministry counts 1,431 killed since the October 2025 ceasefire (Al Jazeera, 1 Oct; figure not verified here), and daily strikes, West Bank settler attacks and Lebanese displacement keep civilian conditions above routine; no new aid-corridor closure found.","z":-0.13,"mean":5.1,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-october-04-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Oct. 4: Netanyahu orders 'thorough review' of security procedures for foreign flights to Israel","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null},{"url":"https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1549609/2-pm-recap-iran-says-no-military-solution-to-conflict-2-israeli-soldiers-wounded-in-south-lebanon-houthis-claim-attack-on-aramco.html","title":"L'Orient Today: 2 p.m. recap: Iran says, 'No military solution' to conflict; 2 Israeli soldiers wounded in south Lebanon; Houthis claim attack on Aramco","domain":"today.lorientlejour.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/10/05/israeli-forces-kill-man-in-occupied-syrian-territory-amid-incursions/","title":"The National: Israeli forces kill man in occupied Syrian territory amid incursions","domain":"thenationalnews.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/3/israeli-settlers-attack-palestinian-olive-pickers-in-the-west-bank","title":"Al Jazeera: Israeli settlers attack farmers in West Bank pogrom, soldiers hit reporters","domain":"aljazeera.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/1/palestinians-to-bury-remains-of-105-people-killed-in-israeli-attack-on-gaza","title":"Al Jazeera: Palestinians bury remains of 105 people killed in Israeli attack on Gaza","domain":"aljazeera.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/2026-10/syria-96.php","title":"Security Council Report: Syria, October 2026 Monthly Forecast","domain":"securitycouncilreport.org","category":null},{"url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/25/israeli-shelling-continues-as-lebanons-pm-demands-withdrawal-in-un-speech","title":"Al Jazeera: Israeli shelling continues as Lebanon's PM demands withdrawal in UN speech","domain":"aljazeera.com","category":null}],"notes":"- \n- \n- C\n- a\n- l\n- i\n- b\n- r\n- a\n- t\n- i\n- o\n- n\n- \n- d\n- a\n- t\n- a\n- \n- u\n- n\n- a\n- v\n- a\n- i\n- l\n- a\n- b\n- l\n- e\n- \n- t\n- o\n- d\n- a\n- y\n- .\n- \n- S\n- c\n- o\n- r\n- e\n- s\n- \n- c\n- o\n- m\n- e\n- \n- f\n- r\n- o\n- m\n- \n- t\n- h\n- e\n- \n- r\n- u\n- b\n- r\n- i\n- c\n- \n- a\n- n\n- d\n- \n- a\n- n\n- c\n- h\n- o\n- r\n- s\n- \n- o\n- n\n- l\n- y\n- ,\n- \n- a\n- n\n- d\n- \n- a\n- l\n- l\n- \n- d\n- e\n- l\n- t\n- a\n- s\n- \n- a\n- r\n- e\n- \n- s\n- h\n- o\n- w\n- n\n- \n- a\n- s\n- \n- 0\n- \n- b\n- e\n- c\n- a\n- u\n- s\n- e\n- \n- n\n- o\n- \n- p\n- r\n- i\n- o\n- r\n- \n- p\n- u\n- b\n- l\n- i\n- s\n- h\n- e\n- d\n- \n- s\n- c\n- o\n- r\n- e\n- s\n- \n- c\n- o\n- u\n- l\n- d\n- \n- b\n- e\n- \n- r\n- e\n- a\n- d\n- .\n- \n- \n- \n- T\n- h\n- e\n- \n- A\n- l\n- \n- J\n- a\n- z\n- e\n- e\n- r\n- a\n- \n- a\n- r\n- t\n- i\n- c\n- l\n- e\n- \n- o\n- f\n- \n- 1\n- \n- O\n- c\n- t\n- \n- c\n- o\n- n\n- c\n- e\n- r\n- n\n- s\n- \n- b\n- u\n- r\n- i\n- a\n- l\n- s\n- \n- o\n- f\n- \n- v\n- i\n- c\n- t\n- i\n- m\n- s\n- \n- o\n- f\n- \n- a\n- \n- s\n- t\n- r\n- i\n- k\n- e\n- \n- o\n- n\n- \n- 2\n- 5\n- \n- O\n- c\n- t\n- \n- 2\n- 0\n- 2\n- 3\n- ;\n- \n- i\n- t\n- \n- i\n- s\n- \n- u\n- s\n- e\n- d\n- \n- o\n- n\n- l\n- y\n- \n- f\n- o\n- r\n- \n- i\n- t\n- s\n- \n- a\n- t\n- t\n- r\n- i\n- b\n- u\n- t\n- e\n- d\n- \n- c\n- e\n- a\n- s\n- e\n- f\n- i\n- r\n- e\n- \n- v\n- i\n- o\n- l\n- a\n- t\n- i\n- o\n- n\n- \n- c\n- o\n- n\n- t\n- e\n- x\n- t\n- .\n- \n- T\n- h\n- e\n- \n- '\n- n\n- e\n- a\n- r\n- l\n- y\n- \n- 5\n- ,\n- 0\n- 0\n- 0\n- \n- v\n- i\n- o\n- l\n- a\n- t\n- i\n- o\n- n\n- s\n- '\n- \n- a\n- n\n- d\n- \n- '\n- 1\n- ,\n- 4\n- 3\n- 1\n- \n- k\n- i\n- l\n- l\n- e\n- d\n- '\n- \n- f\n- i\n- g\n- u\n- r\n- e\n- s\n- \n- a\n- r\n- e\n- \n- c\n- l\n- a\n- i\n- m\n- s\n- \n- a\n- s\n- \n- c\n- i\n- t\n- e\n- d\n- \n- t\n- h\n- e\n- r\n- e\n- ,\n- \n- n\n- o\n- t\n- \n- v\n- e\n- r\n- i\n- f\n- i\n- e\n- d\n- .\n- \n- \n- \n- I\n- s\n- r\n- a\n- e\n- l\n- i\n- \n- s\n- i\n- d\n- e\n- \n- c\n- l\n- a\n- i\n- m\n- s\n- \n- (\n- I\n- D\n- F\n- \n- o\n- n\n- \n- K\n- h\n- a\n- n\n- \n- Y\n- o\n- u\n- n\n- i\n- s\n- \n- s\n- t\n- r\n- i\n- k\n- e\n- s\n- \n- a\n- n\n- d\n- \n- t\n- h\n- e\n- \n- S\n- y\n- r\n- i\n- a\n- \n- s\n- h\n- o\n- o\n- t\n- i\n- n\n- g\n- )\n- \n- a\n- r\n- e\n- \n- n\n- o\n- t\n- \n- i\n- n\n- d\n- e\n- p\n- e\n- n\n- d\n- e\n- n\n- t\n- l\n- y\n- \n- c\n- o\n- n\n- f\n- i\n- r\n- m\n- e\n- d\n- ;\n- \n- T\n- h\n- e\n- \n- N\n- a\n- t\n- i\n- o\n- n\n- a\n- l\n- \n- n\n- o\n- t\n- e\n- s\n- \n- t\n- h\n- e\n- \n- I\n- D\n- F\n- \n- g\n- a\n- v\n- e\n- \n- n\n- o\n- \n- i\n- d\n- e\n- n\n- t\n- i\n- f\n- i\n- c\n- a\n- t\n- i\n- o\n- n\n- \n- o\n- f\n- \n- t\n- h\n- e\n- \n- m\n- a\n- n\n- \n- k\n- i\n- l\n- l\n- e\n- d\n- \n- o\n- r\n- \n- e\n- v\n- i\n- d\n- e\n- n\n- c\n- e\n- \n- h\n- e\n- \n- w\n- a\n- s\n- \n- a\n- r\n- m\n- e\n- d\n- .\n- \n- T\n- h\n- e\n- \n- S\n- y\n- r\n- i\n- a\n- n\n- \n- c\n- l\n- a\n- i\n- m\n- \n- a\n- b\n- o\n- u\n- t\n- \n- S\n- u\n- f\n- a\n- \n- 5\n- 3\n- \n- e\n- a\n- r\n- t\n- h\n- w\n- o\n- r\n- k\n- s\n- \n- c\n- o\n- m\n- e\n- s\n- \n- v\n- i\n- a\n- \n- S\n- A\n- N\n- A\n- \n- (\n- o\n- f\n- f\n- i\n- c\n- i\n- a\n- l\n- )\n- ,\n- \n- r\n- e\n- l\n- a\n- y\n- e\n- d\n- \n- b\n- y\n- \n- T\n- h\n- e\n- \n- N\n- a\n- t\n- i\n- o\n- n\n- a\n- l\n- .\n- \n- \n- \n- L\n- '\n- O\n- r\n- i\n- e\n- n\n- t\n- \n- T\n- o\n- d\n- a\n- y\n- \n- r\n- e\n- p\n- o\n- r\n- t\n- s\n- \n- t\n- h\n- e\n- \n- H\n- o\n- u\n- t\n- h\n- i\n- s\n- \n- c\n- l\n- a\n- i\n- m\n- e\n- d\n- \n- a\n- n\n- \n- a\n- t\n- t\n- a\n- c\n- k\n- \n- o\n- n\n- \n- S\n- a\n- u\n- d\n- i\n- \n- A\n- r\n- a\n- m\n- c\n- o\n- \n- o\n- n\n- \n- 4\n- \n- O\n- c\n- t\n- ,\n- \n- w\n- h\n- i\n- c\n- h\n- \n- S\n- a\n- u\n- d\n- i\n- \n- A\n- r\n- a\n- b\n- i\n- a\n- \n- d\n- e\n- n\n- i\n- e\n- d\n- .\n- \n- H\n- o\n- u\n- t\n- h\n- i\n- ,\n- \n- I\n- r\n- a\n- n\n- i\n- a\n- n\n- \n- a\n- n\n- d\n- \n- H\n- o\n- r\n- m\n- u\n- z\n- \n- d\n- e\n- v\n- e\n- l\n- o\n- p\n- m\n- e\n- n\n- t\n- s\n- \n- a\n- r\n- e\n- \n- t\n- r\n- a\n- c\n- k\n- e\n- d\n- \n- a\n- s\n- \n- s\n- p\n- i\n- l\n- l\n- o\n- v\n- e\n- r\n- \n- o\n- n\n- l\n- y\n- .\n- \n- \n- \n- N\n- o\n- t\n- \n- c\n- o\n- v\n- e\n- r\n- e\n- d\n- \n- i\n- n\n- \n- t\n- h\n- i\n- s\n- \n- r\n- u\n- n\n- :\n- \n- L\n- e\n- b\n- a\n- n\n- e\n- s\n- e\n- ,\n- \n- J\n- o\n- r\n- d\n- a\n- n\n- i\n- a\n- n\n- \n- a\n- n\n- d\n- \n- H\n- e\n- b\n- r\n- e\n- w\n- \n- l\n- a\n- n\n- g\n- u\n- a\n- g\n- e\n- \n- p\n- r\n- i\n- m\n- a\n- r\n- y\n- \n- r\n- e\n- p\n- o\n- r\n- t\n- i\n- n\n- g\n- \n- c\n- o\n- u\n- l\n- d\n- \n- n\n- o\n- t\n- \n- b\n- e\n- \n- r\n- e\n- a\n- c\n- h\n- e\n- d\n- ,\n- \n- s\n- o\n- \n- L\n- e\n- b\n- a\n- n\n- o\n- n\n- \n- f\n- r\n- o\n- n\n- t\n- \n- a\n- n\n- d\n- \n- E\n- W\n- \n- r\n- e\n- a\n- d\n- i\n- n\n- g\n- s\n- \n- m\n- a\n- y\n- \n- u\n- n\n- d\n- e\n- r\n- c\n- o\n- u\n- n\n- t\n- .\n- \n- W\n- a\n- t\n- c\n- h\n- :\n- \n- a\n- n\n- y\n- \n- H\n- e\n- z\n- b\n- o\n- l\n- l\n- a\n- h\n- \n- I\n- D\n- F\n- \n- e\n- x\n- c\n- h\n- a\n- n\n- g\n- e\n- ,\n- \n- f\n- u\n- r\n- t\n- h\n- e\n- r\n- \n- Q\n- u\n- n\n- e\n- i\n- t\n- r\n- a\n- \n- e\n- a\n- r\n- t\n- h\n- w\n- o\n- r\n- k\n- s\n- ,\n- \n- a\n- n\n- d\n- \n- t\n- h\n- e\n- \n- U\n- S\n- \n- I\n- r\n- a\n- n\n- \n- H\n- o\n- r\n- m\n- u\n- z\n- \n- t\n- a\n- l\n- k\n- s\n- .\n- Revised on 5 Oct after a 3 Sept-4 Oct retrospective record was compiled: the first run, made without calibration data, scored Lebanon, Gaza and humanitarian conditions one point lower than the standard applied to the preceding month.","retrospective":true,"revised":true,"revision_count":1,"revisions":[{"reason":"backfill_import","at":"2026-10-05 19:26:51","changed":{"military":{"old":4.0,"new":6.0},"diplomatic":{"old":4.0,"new":5.0},"humanitarian":{"old":4.0,"new":5.0},"economic_info":{"old":3.0,"new":5.0}}}]},{"date":"2026-10-06","risk":50.8,"absolute":50.0,"z":0.1,"band":"tense","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":-0.11,"slope_7d":-0.2,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":50.0,"summary":"Conditions were close to the recent pattern: strikes continued in the Gaza Strip under the October ceasefire, settler violence was reported in the West Bank, and Israeli forces killed a man near a post in southern Syria while Syria's foreign ministry protested Israeli earthworks along the 1974 line. No new Lebanon-front incident was verified in the reporting reviewed.","categories":{"military":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Israeli strikes in Gaza (6 killed over 3-4 Oct per medical personnel cited by The National), settler arson reported near Jerusalem and Hebron on 5 Oct, and a man killed by Israeli troops in southern Syria shortly after midnight on 5 Oct; no multi-day front exchanges.","z":0.53,"mean":5.6,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":4.0,"justification":"No new Lebanon-front incident was verified in sources reviewed for 5-6 Oct; scored at the routine ceasefire-pattern level."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":6.0,"justification":"Strikes in Gaza City (3 Oct, five reported killed; Israeli military said it targeted a Hamas official) and Deir al-Balah (4 Oct, one reported killed); Palestinian sources reported settler arson near Jerusalem and in the Hebron area on 5 Oct."},"syria_front":{"score":4.0,"justification":"Israeli military said troops shot a suspect who tried to infiltrate a post in southern Syria after midnight on 5 Oct; Syria's foreign ministry (via SANA) protested Israeli trench-digging along the 1974 line in Israeli-occupied Syrian territory."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Syria condemned the reported 'Sufa 53 Line' fortification as a breach of the 1974 disengagement agreement and Qatar and Jordan criticised it (reported by The National); Trump said he personally believes Iran was responsible for the flydubai incident, while Israeli security officials' assessment was lone attacker (Times of Israel, 5 Oct).","z":-0.27,"mean":5.2,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"US Treasury warned foreign financial institutions of possible sanctions for business with Iranian entities (Times of Israel live blog, 6 Oct); no Levant gas or cyber item verified today.","z":0.13,"mean":4.9,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Palestinian deaths since the October ceasefire put at 1,446 with over 5,060 injured (figure as cited by The National, source ministry not named in the summary); Israel's defence minister reportedly ordered all crossings into Gaza and the West Bank closed on the 7 October anniversary.","z":-0.13,"mean":5.1,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference beyond routine background jamming reported in sources reviewed.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-october-5-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Oct. 5 live blog","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-october-06-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Oct. 6 live blog","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/10/05/israeli-forces-kill-man-in-occupied-syrian-territory-amid-incursions/","title":"The National: Israeli forces kill man in occupied Syrian territory amid incursions","domain":"thenationalnews.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/10/05/syria-israel-golan/","title":"The National: Israel building military line in occupied Syrian territory, Damascus says","domain":"thenationalnews.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/10/04/six-palestinians-killed-in-israeli-strikes-across-gaza/","title":"The National: Six Palestinians killed in Israeli strikes across Gaza","domain":"thenationalnews.com","category":null},{"url":"https://qna.org.qa/en/News-Area/News/2026-10/4/syria-denounces-israels-relentless-attacks-and-completion-of-so-called-sufa-53-line","title":"Qatar News Agency: Syria Denounces Israel's Relentless Attacks and Completion of So-Called \"Sufa 53\" Line","domain":"qna.org.qa","category":"official"},{"url":"http://levantindex.org/api/data","title":"Calibration","domain":"levantindex.org","category":null}],"notes":"- Calibration: https://www.google.com/url?q=http://levantindex.org/api/data&source=gmail&ust=1791355314444000&sa=E was read via a secondary fetch (7 days, military 6, diplomatic 5, economic 5, humanitarian 5, ew_sigint 3); scores held at those levels since the day's reporting matches them.\n- Lebanon front: no dated 5-6 Oct incident could be verified; search results for Lebanon strikes were from earlier months, so none are used here.\n- Casualty figures are as reported by the cited outlets; the Israeli military did not comment on the Gaza City apartment strike per The National. The identity and intent of the man killed in southern Syria are unconfirmed; only the Israeli military's account is available.\n- West Bank settler arson reports of 5 Oct come from Palestinian sources as relayed in the Times of Israel live blog and are unverified claims.\n- Watch next: the 7 October anniversary and the reported crossing closures, and the Israel-Syria talks after the 'Sufa 53' protest.","retrospective":false,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-10-07","risk":47.7,"absolute":48.5,"z":-0.1,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":-3.1,"slope_7d":-0.42,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":50.0,"summary":"Conditions stayed within the recent pattern: Israeli strikes continued in south Lebanon and Gaza, West Bank olive-harvest violence was reported, and Syria and Arab states protested Israeli construction of the 'Sufa 53 Line' near the 1974 line in Quneitra. No new escalation beyond the established ceasefire-era baseline was verified.","categories":{"military":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Continued Israeli strikes in south Lebanon (L'Orient Today, 5 Oct) and Gaza (Gaza Health Ministry count of 1,460 killed since the October 2025 ceasefire, per Al Jazeera), plus West Bank settler violence; no new breakdown of any ceasefire.","z":0.53,"mean":5.6,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"lebanon_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"L'Orient Today (published 5 Oct) reported Israeli air strikes on Kfar Tibnit and Wadi Hujeir and artillery fire on Mansouri and Beit Yahoun, with overnight attacks described as less intense than recent nights; UNIFIL counted 30 Israeli positions in south Lebanon (22 Sep)."},"gaza_westbank_front":{"score":6.0,"justification":"Gaza Health Ministry figure of 1,460 killed since the ceasefire (up from 1,422 on 29 Sep), as relayed by Al Jazeera; two Palestinians shot dead in the West Bank on 1 and 2 Oct and settler attacks on olive harvesters reported (earlier days, context for the ongoing pattern)."},"syria_front":{"score":5.0,"justification":"Syria's foreign ministry says Israel is expanding earthworks on the 'Sufa 53 Line' in Quneitra near the 1974 line (reported 4-6 Oct); Israel had not responded per The National; Sijil Center counted 280 Israeli violations in Syria in September (published 2 Oct)."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Qatar and Jordan (4 Oct) and Egypt condemned the Sufa 53 Line work as a breach of the 1974 Disengagement Agreement; analysts cited by The National warn it threatens US-brokered Israel-Syria talks; no Israeli response reported.","z":-0.27,"mean":5.2,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"No new sanctions, licensing disputes or cyber incidents were verified in the last 24 hours; background friction only (earlier US sanctions on Iran were reported on previous days).","z":-1.2,"mean":4.9,"std":0.75,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false},"humanitarian":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Gaza Health Ministry reports 1,460 killed since the ceasefire and 74,243 since October 2023 (attributed to the ministry via Al Jazeera, not independently verified); olive-harvest access restrictions reported in at least five West Bank villages per Al Jazeera.","z":-0.13,"mean":5.1,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new interference reported beyond routine background jamming.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/6/palestine-weekly-olive-harvest-opens-under-assault","title":"Al Jazeera: Palestine weekly: Olive harvest opens under assault","domain":"aljazeera.com","category":null},{"url":"https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1549678/israeli-attacks-on-south-lebanon-persist-overnight.html","title":"L'Orient Today: Israeli attacks on south Lebanon persist overnight","domain":"today.lorientlejour.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/10/05/syria-israel-golan/","title":"The National: Israel building military line in occupied Syrian territory, Damascus says","domain":"thenationalnews.com","category":null},{"url":"https://sana.sy/en/politics/2348075/","title":"SANA: Qatar, Jordan denounce Israeli completion of so-called Sufa 53 Line in Quneitra","domain":"sana.sy","category":"official"},{"url":"https://english.enabbaladi.net/archives/2026/10/report-documents-280-israeli-violations-in-syria-in-september/amp/","title":"Enab Baladi: Report Documents 280 Israeli Violations in Syria in September","domain":"english.enabbaladi.net","category":null},{"url":"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-october-06-2026/","title":"Times of Israel: Liveblog, October 6, 2026","domain":"timesofisrael.com","category":null}],"notes":"- Several figures above come from reports dated 1-5 Oct rather than 6 Oct; they are cited as context for the continuing pattern, not as new events.\n- Casualty figures are the Gaza Health Ministry's, relayed by Al Jazeera, and have not been independently verified. Israeli-side sourcing for the day's Gaza strikes was not retrieved.\n- The Israeli position on the Sufa 53 Line was not available; The National reported no immediate Israeli reaction. The line runs in Israeli-occupied Syrian territory near the Golan Heights per UN usage.\n- Calibration data was retrieved and scores were kept in line with the 30 Sep to 6 Oct entries; Economic is lowered by one point only because no new item was verified.\n- Watch next: Israeli response on the Sufa 53 Line, any Israel-Syria talks, the West Bank olive harvest, and whether strike tempo in Lebanon and Gaza changes around the 7 October anniversary.","retrospective":false,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]}],"limited":{"days":30,"log":7,"total_days":35,"first_date":"2026-09-03"}}