Levant Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Israel, Lebanon, Syria, the Palestinian territories and Jordan, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

Index52 / 100
24 h change+2.0
StatusTENSE
Warning signalNo spikes
Assessment7 Sep 2026
Last updated23:55 UTC5 Oct 2026

What changed · 7 Sep 2026

An Israeli strike on a residential building at Kfar Reman killed 11 people including two children, taking Lebanon's three-day toll to at least 27 dead.

  • Military posture: 6/10 · Overall judgement: the deadliest day on the Lebanon front in weeks sits alongside steady Gaza strikes.
  • Diplomatic / political: 5/10 · The Red Cross met Israeli officials on resuming detainee visits; the UK was reported ready to embargo settlement trade (Times of Israel).
  • Economic / informational: 5/10 · Energy Ministry proposed relocating the Haifa refineries; no Levant gas dispute reported.
  • Humanitarian: 6/10 · A strike killing 11 including two children, and a medic, is a credible mass-casualty report attributed to Lebanon's ministry; 135 health workers killed since March, per the ministry (Al Jazeera).
  • EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.

Sources

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