Levant Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Israel, Lebanon, Syria, the Palestinian territories and Jordan, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

Index50 / 100
24 h change−1.5
StatusTENSE
Warning signalNo spikes
Assessment8 Sep 2026
Last updated23:55 UTC5 Oct 2026

What changed · 8 Sep 2026

Britain imposed an import ban on West Bank settlement goods and Israel retaliated by closing the British consulate and barring 11 MPs; settler outposts and raids continued in the West Bank.

  • Military posture: 5/10 · Overall judgement: continued strikes and demolitions in Lebanon plus Iran-US naval clashes keep the picture above routine.
  • Diplomatic / political: 6/10 · Israel closed the British consulate in Jerusalem, banned 11 British MPs and expelled Gaza and PA representatives after the UK sanctions; Rubio said the US would not follow (Times of Israel).
  • Economic / informational: 6/10 · The UK settlement-goods import ban took effect as a trade measure; Smotrich's ministry prepared retaliation (Times of Israel).
  • Humanitarian: 5/10 · No new aid-access restriction reported; displacement in Lebanon (over 340,000) continued.
  • EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.

Sources

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