Levant Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Israel, Lebanon, Syria, the Palestinian territories and Jordan, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

What changed · 9 Sep 2026

Iran fired 20 ballistic missiles at the US-used Al-Azraq air base in Jordan, 18 intercepted by Jordan's forces, a direct strike on one of the five countries this index covers.

• Military posture: 7/10 · Overall judgement: an Iranian missile attack on Jordanian territory is a serious regional escalation, even though the fronts themselves stayed within recent patterns.
• Diplomatic / political: 6/10 · The IAEA board voted 23-3-8 to refer Iran to the UN Security Council; Trump questioned why the UK and others sanctioned settlements; eight Muslim-majority states urged others to follow (Times of Israel).
• Economic / informational: 5/10 · Houthis struck a Saudi airbase and oil infrastructure, wounding 73 per Reuters, adding to Gulf energy risk.
• Humanitarian: 5/10 · No new aid-access restriction; the Red Cross was not allowed to see detainees at a first meeting (Times of Israel).
• EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.

Sources

• Times of Israel: Sept. 9: Trump says he wants to know why 'all of a sudden' the UK and others sanctioned settlements
• Al Jazeera: What is Jordan's Al-Azraq base and why is Iran targeting it?

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