Levant Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Israel, Lebanon, Syria, the Palestinian territories and Jordan, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

Index47 / 100
24 h change+0.2
StatusELEVATED
Warning signalNo spikes
Assessment12 Sep 2026
Last updated23:55 UTC5 Oct 2026

What changed · 12 Sep 2026

Lebanon's president visited the south and said Israeli withdrawal is a national constant, while the Israel-Lebanon talks planned for the following week were postponed to October.

  • Military posture: 5/10 · Overall judgement: unchanged pattern on the three fronts.
  • Diplomatic / political: 5/10 · The next round of Israel-Lebanon talks slipped to October; BRICS called for restraint; Iraq closed three border crossings with Iran after the Saudi pipeline attack (Times of Israel).
  • Economic / informational: 6/10 · Iraq and Iran agreed a joint probe into the drone launch sites behind the Saudi pipeline attack (Reuters via Times of Israel).
  • Humanitarian: 5/10 · UN reported at least 76,000 Yemenis displaced since July (outside this index's five places).
  • EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.

Sources

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