Levant Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Israel, Lebanon, Syria, the Palestinian territories and Jordan, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

Index55 / 100
24 h change+10.5
StatusTENSE
Warning signalNo spikes
Assessment16 Sep 2026
Last updated23:55 UTC5 Oct 2026

What changed · 16 Sep 2026

A building collapse in Gaza City killed at least 20 people with dozens missing, which the IDF denied causing; the IDF said it killed three Hamas and Islamic Jihad operatives.

  • Military posture: 6/10 · Overall judgement: the Gaza City collapse and strikes lift the Gaza front above its recent level.
  • Diplomatic / political: 5/10 · Egypt hosted Abbas; the US denied him a visa for the second year (Times of Israel).
  • Economic / informational: 5/10 · The FBI and Coast Guard boarded two oil tankers after cyberattack indicators; no disruption reported (Times of Israel).
  • Humanitarian: 6/10 · A building collapse reported to have killed at least 20 is a credible mass-casualty report whose cause is disputed; unverified here.
  • EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.

Sources

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