Levant Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Israel, Lebanon, Syria, the Palestinian territories and Jordan, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

Index42 / 100
24 h change−2.9
StatusELEVATED
Warning signalNo spikes
Assessment18 Sep 2026
Last updated01:30 UTC7 Oct 2026

What changed · 18 Sep 2026

A masked settler was filmed beating a Palestinian woman in the South Hebron Hills, the IDF probed gunfire near al-Mughayyir, and Yom Kippur closures began.

  • Military posture: 5/10 · Overall judgement: steady pattern on the fronts.
  • Diplomatic / political: 5/10 · The UN secretary-general regretted the visa denial to Abbas (Times of Israel).
  • Economic / informational: 4/10 · Background friction only.
  • Humanitarian: 5/10 · Kerem Shalom closed for Yom Kippur on 20-21 Sept.
  • EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.

Sources

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