Levant Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Israel, Lebanon, Syria, the Palestinian territories and Jordan, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

Index42 / 100
24 h change+0.2
StatusELEVATED
Warning signalNo spikes
Assessment19 Sep 2026
Last updated23:55 UTC5 Oct 2026

What changed · 19 Sep 2026

Three people including a girl were reported killed by Israeli fire in Gaza and the IDF killed a Hamas commander; Houthis claimed missile and drone attacks on Riyadh.

  • Military posture: 5/10 · Overall judgement: steady pattern on the fronts.
  • Diplomatic / political: 5/10 · Iran's security chief said Tehran conveyed conditions to mediators including an end to war on all fronts (Reuters via Times of Israel).
  • Economic / informational: 4/10 · Background friction only.
  • Humanitarian: 5/10 · Casualty claims in Gaza are attributed to Palestinian reports; no new aid-access restriction.
  • EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.

Sources

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