Levant Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Israel, Lebanon, Syria, the Palestinian territories and Jordan, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

Index48 / 100
24 h change+6.4
StatusELEVATED
Warning signalNo spikes
Assessment20 Sep 2026
Last updated23:55 UTC5 Oct 2026

What changed · 20 Sep 2026

A Palestinian gunman killed an Israeli father of six at a spring near Neve Tzuf, an attacker was shot after a ramming attempt, and the IDF killed three Hamas operatives in Gaza.

  • Military posture: 6/10 · Overall judgement: a fatal attack on an Israeli and continued Gaza strikes lift the Gaza and West Bank front.
  • Diplomatic / political: 5/10 · Iran's military said it had information of a US plan to resume strikes; a CIA director met Egypt's president (Times of Israel).
  • Economic / informational: 4/10 · Background friction only.
  • Humanitarian: 5/10 · No new aid-access restriction reported.
  • EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.

Sources

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