Levant Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Israel, Lebanon, Syria, the Palestinian territories and Jordan, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

What changed · 21 Sep 2026

The IDF struck Hamas sites after a roadside bomb hit an engineering vehicle on the Yellow Line; Gaza's ministry reported four killed including an 11-year-old boy.

• Military posture: 6/10 · Overall judgement: a ceasefire violation claimed by the IDF and four reported deaths in Gaza.
• Diplomatic / political: 5/10 · The US refused visas to members of Iran's UN delegation; Qatar denied that its aid reached Hamas (Times of Israel).
• Economic / informational: 4/10 · Background friction only.
• Humanitarian: 5/10 · Gaza's health ministry counts 1,394 killed and 4,839 wounded since the ceasefire; the figure is the ministry's and not verified here.
• EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.

Sources

• Times of Israel: Live blog, 21 September 2026
• Al Jazeera: Child among four Palestinians killed in Israeli attacks on Gaza

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