Levant Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Israel, Lebanon, Syria, the Palestinian territories and Jordan, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

Index56 / 100
24 h change+6.2
StatusTENSE
Warning signalNo spikes
Assessment23 Sep 2026
Last updated23:55 UTC5 Oct 2026

What changed · 23 Sep 2026

An IDF reservist, the son of Israel's US envoy, was seriously wounded in a car-ramming near Route 443, and Katz told Syria's president Israel will not leave the Syrian buffer zone.

  • Military posture: 6/10 · Overall judgement: a serious attack on an Israeli and defiant statements on Syria.
  • Diplomatic / political: 6/10 · Rubio said the world does not need a West Bank crisis; Netanyahu prepared to push back on Western sanctions in his UN address (Times of Israel).
  • Economic / informational: 5/10 · Background friction only.
  • Humanitarian: 5/10 · An Indian sailor was killed in a Hormuz attack (outside this index's five places).
  • EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.

Sources

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