Levant Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Israel, Lebanon, Syria, the Palestinian territories and Jordan, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

Index49 / 100
24 h change−6.4
StatusELEVATED
Warning signalNo spikes
Assessment24 Sep 2026
Last updated23:55 UTC5 Oct 2026

What changed · 24 Sep 2026

Israeli forces set off large explosions near Taybeh and Deir Siryan in south Lebanon, Netanyahu told Syria's president Israeli troops will not withdraw, and he attacked Qatar and Turkey at the UN.

  • Military posture: 5/10 · Overall judgement: steady pattern with continued demolitions in Lebanon.
  • Diplomatic / political: 6/10 · Netanyahu's UN speech criticised Qatar and Turkey and drew rebuttals from Qatar (Times of Israel).
  • Economic / informational: 5/10 · Houthis claimed attacks on Riyadh and Aramco's Yanbu facilities, which Saudi Arabia said it intercepted (Times of Israel).
  • Humanitarian: 5/10 · No new aid-access restriction reported.
  • EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.

Sources

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