Levant Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Israel, Lebanon, Syria, the Palestinian territories and Jordan, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

What changed · 25 Sep 2026

Lebanon's prime minister told the UN that recovering territory from Israeli occupation is an existential challenge while Israeli shelling and demolitions continued in the south.

• Military posture: 5/10 · Overall judgement: steady pattern on the fronts.
• Diplomatic / political: 5/10 · Iran said it would make no nuclear concessions and Hormuz stays shut until its conditions are met (Times of Israel).
• Economic / informational: 4/10 · Background friction only.
• Humanitarian: 5/10 · Lebanon's authorities report more than 12,000 wounded; figures are the Lebanese ministry's.
• EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.

Sources

• Times of Israel: Live blog, 25 September 2026
• Al Jazeera: Israeli shelling continues as Lebanon's PM demands withdrawal in UN speech

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