Levant Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Israel, Lebanon, Syria, the Palestinian territories and Jordan, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

What changed · 28 Sep 2026

The IDF said it completed a brigade-level operation at Mansouri destroying more than 600 Hezbollah sites; settlers rioted in Jalud and Israeli officials warned a wider Gaza operation may be inevitable.

• Military posture: 6/10 · Overall judgement: a large operation in south Lebanon and rising Gaza warnings.
• Diplomatic / political: 5/10 · Netanyahu met the UAE president in Abu Dhabi; Israel withdrew diplomatic privileges from Dutch diplomats over the settlement-goods ban (Times of Israel).
• Economic / informational: 5/10 · Israel's retaliation against the Netherlands over the settlement-goods ban continued.
• Humanitarian: 5/10 · No new aid-access restriction reported.
• EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.

Sources

• Times of Israel: Live blog, 28 September 2026
• Sunday Guardian: Israel strikes southern Lebanon, death toll reaches 4,386 amid sweep operations in Haddatha, Al-Mansouri

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