Levant Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Israel, Lebanon, Syria, the Palestinian territories and Jordan, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

What changed · 29 Sep 2026

Settlers burned two homes at Jalud hours after a court-ordered family return, the IDF killed Hamas commander Izz al-Din al-Beik, and Lebanon reported Israeli sweep operations toward Haddatha.

• Military posture: 6/10 · Overall judgement: the killing of a senior Hamas commander and the Jalud attack lift the Gaza and West Bank front.
• Diplomatic / political: 5/10 · Hamas and Islamic Jihad formed an election list with Dahlan; the UAE condemned Ben Gvir's Temple Mount visit (Times of Israel).
• Economic / informational: 4/10 · Background friction only.
• Humanitarian: 5/10 · No new aid-access restriction; OCHA counted more than 1,330 settler attacks from January to late July (Al Jazeera).
• EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.

Sources

• Times of Israel: Sept. 29: After PM's warning, Bennett says 'mass draft evasion and IDF's collapse' are 'the worst danger'
• Al Jazeera: Israeli settlers attack Jalud village in occupied West Bank

Open the interactive view → · Sign in to download the full data (CSV/JSON, free account)