Levant Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Israel, Lebanon, Syria, the Palestinian territories and Jordan, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

What changed · 30 Sep 2026

Israeli attacks killed eight people in Gaza including a journalist, taking Gaza's post-ceasefire toll to 1,431, and an Omani flydubai co-pilot attempted to crash a Dubai-Tel Aviv flight.

• Military posture: 6/10 · Overall judgement: multiple fatalities in Gaza under the ceasefire.
• Diplomatic / political: 5/10 · Israel told diplomats the flydubai attempted hijacking was an attack on the Abraham Accords and agreed cooperation with the UAE (Times of Israel).
• Economic / informational: 4/10 · Background friction only.
• Humanitarian: 6/10 · Gaza's ministry counts at least 1,431 killed and 5,026 wounded since the ceasefire and doctors describe a decimated health system; figures are the ministry's and not verified here.
• EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in the sources reviewed.

Sources

• Times of Israel: Sept. 30: Flydubai announces suspension of Israel flights amid probe into attempted hijacking
• Al Jazeera: Journalist among eight people killed by Israeli attacks on Gaza

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