Levant Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Israel, Lebanon, Syria, the Palestinian territories and Jordan, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

Index48 / 100
24 h change−3.1
StatusELEVATED
Warning signalNo spikes
Assessment9 Oct 2026
Last updated11:20 UTC9 Oct 2026

What changed · 9 Oct 2026

Conditions remain close to the recent pattern: Gaza Health Ministry-reported deaths continue under the October 2025 ceasefire, Israeli artillery fire in south Lebanon was reported on 7 October, and Syria and Arab states continue to protest Israeli works on the Sufa 53 line in Quneitra. No new escalation was verified today.

  • Military posture: 6/10 · Held at 6: Gaza Health Ministry reports continued ceasefire-period deaths and Lebanese and Syrian-front incidents continue at the recent pattern; no new escalation verified.
  • Diplomatic / political: 5/10 · Qatar, Jordan and Kuwait condemned the Sufa 53 works on 4 Oct (reported 5 Oct); Israeli government comment was not found, and no new diplomatic development was verified today.
  • Economic / informational: 4/10 · No new sanctions, energy dispute or cyber incident was verified in sources opened today; scored at the routine level, unchanged from the latest complete published entry (7 Oct).
  • Humanitarian: 5/10 · Islamic Relief (cited by Al Jazeera, 8 Oct) said it saw about 1,454 killed since the ceasefire, while the Gaza Health Ministry gave 1,471 killed and 5,189 wounded; the two figures differ and are unverified, and Islamic Relief also reported continued restrictions on shelter, fuel and medical supplies.
  • EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No new interference beyond routine background jamming was reported in sources opened today.

Sources

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