Levant Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Israel, Lebanon, Syria, the Palestinian territories and Jordan, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

Index31 / 100
24 h change−20.6
StatusELEVATED
Warning signalNo spikes
Assessment11 Oct 2026
Last updated07:20 UTC11 Oct 2026

What changed · 11 Oct 2026

Israeli air and artillery strikes continued in southern Lebanon on 10 October despite the June ceasefire, while US-brokered Israel-Lebanon talks and US-Iran end-of-war diplomacy continued. Syria's government kept protesting a new Israeli-built security line in southern Syria, and settler-related violence continued in the West Bank.

  • Military posture: 5/10 · Daily Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon (L'Orient Today, 10 Oct), a new Israeli forward line in southern Syria (IDF statement of 7 Oct, per FDD), and continued West Bank incidents; no multi-day breakdown reported.
  • Diplomatic / political: 4/10 · President Aoun welcomed a US move to lift restrictions on direct flights to Lebanon amid US-brokered Israel-Lebanon talks (AP via Times of Israel, 10 Oct); Syria's protests and Turkish, Qatari and Jordanian statements date from 4-6 Oct; Kremlin said it relayed Iran's position on ending the US-Iran war.
  • Economic / informational: 3/10 · No notable gas-field, sanctions, reconstruction-finance or cyber developments were found in the sources read; scored at routine level.
  • Humanitarian: 4/10 · West Bank olive-harvest access restrictions and injuries were reported by Palestinian media and the Palestinian Red Crescent on 10 Oct (unverified, IDF no comment); Al Jazeera's 7 Oct item claims Israel attacked Gaza nine days out of ten during the ceasefire (unsourced in the item). A settler attack killing one man in Yasuf was reported by AFP on 1 Oct (earlier date).
  • EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No new interference beyond routine background jamming was found in the sources read.

Sources

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