Frequently asked questions

A short summary. The full interactive FAQ has more, grouped by topic, with live numbers from the current configuration.

What do I do with it? Is it purely informational?

It is purely informational. Think of it as a daily, structured summary of how tense relations between Israel, Lebanon, Syria, the Palestinian territories and Jordan look in open-source reporting, compared with recent weeks. It is not a prediction of conflict and should not be the basis for operational, financial or travel decisions.

Is the number a percentage or a probability?

No. It is a score on a 0–100 scale, not a percentage chance of anything. The methodology shows exactly how it is calculated.

Can I use it for reporting or research?

Yes, with attribution and with its nature made clear: name and link it, quote the date (values can be revised later — every revision is logged on the day's own page), and describe it as a heuristic index from open-source reporting, not a measure of the probability of war. The data is CC BY 4.0 licensed; a free account unlocks the full CSV/JSON history.

Why can past values change?

Three reasons, all recorded rather than hidden: a day's baseline depends on the days before it, so adding earlier history can shift it; a change to the weights or thresholds is applied to the whole history for consistency; and a factual correction to a specific day gets that day re-scored. Any of these shows as a "Revised" note with the exact change, on that day's own page.

Who assigns the scores — is it automated?

Each day an automated, AI-assisted analysis reviews open-source reporting and scores it against a fixed, published rubric (see the methodology). Unusual results — an extreme score, a sudden jump, or content that looks like it's trying to manipulate the process — are held for human review before publishing, not published automatically.

See the full FAQ for more, including how sources are chosen and balanced across Israeli, Lebanese, Palestinian, Syrian, Jordanian and international outlets.